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The first week of preseason football is right around the corner, and you know what that really means: Fantasy draft season is now upon us.
While we wouldn't recommend drafting this early in the process given the inevitable injuries that will alter draft boards, sometimes life and scheduling gets in the way. If you're among the proud few already prepping for your draft at this early stage, here are a few rules to follow that could bring you triumph in 2024.
There Are 3 League-Winning RBs in Round 1 — They Should Be the First 3 Picks
Christian McCaffrey. Breece Hall. Bijan Robinson.
I realize we're steering away from conventional wisdom here. While most experts have CMC locked in as their top overall selection, he is usually followed by a group of elite receivers led by CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill.
That should not be the case.
If you're picking near the top of your draft, RB should be at the apex of priority. It's possible—and even likely—that Lamb and Hill will outscore Hall, Robinson or even McCaffrey in PPR formats this season.
That said, every pick isn't made in a points vacuum. Draft strategy is paramount, and the fact of the matter is running back gets scary fast. Selecting a receiver in the first four or five picks in Round 1 means building your RB depth chart around Isiah Pacheco in an absolute best-case scenario. More likely, you're looking at taking a blind swing at De'Von Achane or waiting until the start of Round 3 when James Cook or Rachad White will be leading the depth chart.
The idea of waiting on RB becomes even less palatable when you're sitting at the end of Round 4 holding your breath that Kenneth Walker mercifully falls in your lap.
If McCaffrey's brilliance last year taught us anything, it's that RB remains the most important position in fantasy when you can nab an elite talent. Start the RB trend this year. Don't get caught holding the bag.
RB-RB Could Be the Savior of Late Drafters
If it feels like we're bringing back some 2008 era draft strategy, that's because we are. League winners are always steering against the curve of conventional wisdom.
For the first 20 or so years of fantasy football being in the national lexicon, wide receivers were underrated and running backs were king. That's no longer the case. Seven of the top 12 players in ADP are WRs despite the position being far deeper than RB.
This presents an opportunity for anyone picking the back end of Round 1 to corner the RB market.
Saquon Barkley will be running through the biggest holes of his career this season in Philadelphia, and he's not coming off the board until pick No. 10. Jonathan Taylor will have the biggest gaps he's seen since high school with the threat of Anthony Richardson giving defense pause. Jahmyr Gibbs proved himself every bit worth the hype last season and should get an increased snap share in 2024.
The draft board will have to break right, but starting your draft with Barkley-Taylor, Barkley-Gibbs or Gibbs-Taylor is a no-brainer. Couple them with a Cooper Kupp-Jaylen Waddle duo in Rounds 3-4, and you're cooking with grease at the two most important positions.
Post-Hype Sleepers to Target
- Kyle Pitts (TE, Atlanta Falcons): Like Michael Scott, I am ready to be hurt again. Pitts has been a trainwreck each of the last two seasons, but he's healthy, no longer coached by the infuriating Arthur Smith and should have competent quarterback play if Kirk Cousins stays upright. If it's ever going to happen for Pitts, now is the time. We would say the same thing for Drake London, but his draft stock is out of this world. I'm out there.
- Javonte Williams (RB, Denver Broncos): Williams looked the part as a rookie in 2021 before suffering a devastating knee injury that cost him most of 2022 and left him looking limited most of last season. Now back to full health, Williams should get a ton of opportunities in a Bo Nix-led offense that will be heavy on checkdowns. The Broncos aren't going to be very good, but Williams is being drafted as RB33 when he'll likely be an every-week starter in 12-team formats. Rookie Audric Estime is more of a worry in 2025 than this season.
- Pat Freiermuth (TE, Pittsburgh Steelers):Freiermuth's production fell off a cliff last season amid injuries and an anemic Steelers passing attack, but the talent is there. He recorded 60-plus receptions in his first two seasons and should get back there in 2024, provided Russell Wilson is Pittsburgh's QB1. If Justin Fields pulls off an upset in the QB battle, we'll likely shelve theFreiermuth hype, but he should settle somewhere in the TE7-10 range if it's Wilson.
- JK Dobbins (RB, Los Angeles Chargers): Dobbins has never been able to stay healthy, and there's little reason to believe he'll be a bastion of health now. But Dobbins is the most dynamic running back on the Chargers roster, and health concerns are baked into his price. You're not finding any player with a higher upside in Rounds 11-12.
